Positioning Intelligence; Equity Strategy; Caixabank; ECB Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Positioning Intelligence; Equity Strategy; Caixabank; ECB Preview

Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales - European Financials AC (44-20) 7134-0355 Europe Specialist Sales J P M O R G A Nghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 20 July 2026

Gigi Sparling

+44 207 134 0355

ghislaine.sparling@jpmorgan.com

4 Key Highlights Today:

1. Positioning Intelligence

2. Equity Strategy - The maturing stage of AI/momentum unwind; Inflation rates rolling; Earnings to offer a

support, Voice call tomorrow at 8.30am.

3. Caixa: Small Potential Acquisition

4. ECB preview: On hold, with a clear direction of travel.

Use the links below to jump straight to each section:

The Detailed Highlights

Post results, Newswires & Away from Us

Global Financials wrap, Trading Recap and Colour

Global Financials Research Links

Global Macro Research Links

Save the Date: J.P. Morgan Events

J.P. Morgan Financials Contacts

Positioning Intelligence: John Schlegel head of our Positioning Intelligence team points out that Momentum, Semis, Tech HW

positioning among HFs remains elevated, which means there are still downside risks if the fundamental views change. However,

the 6m z-score of combined HF positioning + factor performance hit a -0.7z level this Thurs, which puts it closer to the -1 to -2z

lows we’ve seen in the past. 1-3m forward returns for Mo’ went from worst set-up in late June to best currently…basically, HFs

have usually been right, so the fact that they’re still bullish on Mo’ despite price coming down hard, means forward returns could

look better (+5.5% over 1m, +12.3% over 3m in today’s set up vs. -2.1% 1m and -10.4% 3m when we were at peaks in late June).

Net flows turn bearish in US over past week…both HFs and US TPM 1wk: HFs were net sellers of global stocks over the past 5d