INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

Research evidence excerpt

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE | MORNING BRIEFING

JULY 20, 2026

20 SECONDS:

• US/Iran escalations over the weekend, with Brent trading above $90. Energy markets may be further

pressured by building tensions in the Red Sea.

• Equity markets remain relatively insensitive to these developments, with Tech/MOMO unwind and

Earnings (c. 20% of SPX and SXXP report) at the forefront this week.

• SOX had its worst week since Apr-25 last week (while SPW broke ATHs), with KOSPI underperforming

APAC peers today as Korea returns from long weekend (KOSPI trading below 100dma).

• China equities the standout today: combination of AI developments (BABA preview of QWEN3.8 Max

Model reportedly ‘second only to Anthropic’s Fable 5’; Moonshot plans IPO) + policy announcements

(slew of A-share buybacks announced, CSRC market meeting today).

• New Positioning Intel: Momentum, Semis, Tech HW positioning among HFs remains elevated but 6m z-

score of combined HF positioning + factor performance hit a -0.7z level last Thurs, nearing -1 to -2z lows

seen in the past. 1-3m forward returns for MOMO went from worst set-up in late June to best now

• ECB key macro event this week: expect no hike but direction of travel is clearly upward. ECB

scenarios published in June, even the milder one, had “almost three hikes” factored in (incl. the one done

in June). Our economists expect a final hike in September

• In the UK, Burnham becomes PM today. Expected policy focus incl. North Sea drilling support, Thames

Water restructuring, social care reform and regional devolution via a new "No. 10 North" unit. Cabinet

appointment announcements should start today – Chancellor will be key (Mahmood front runner).

• THIS WEEK: c. 20% of SPX and SXXP report. Focus on GOOG. Flash PMIs, Regional Fed Surveys, EC