Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 20 July 2026 – Woolworths, Coles, Housing activity

Research evidence excerpt

Stocktake: Australian Consumer Primer for 20 July 2026 – Woolworths, Coles, Housing activity

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

20 July 2026

Stocktake

Australian Consumer Primer for 20 July 2026 –

Woolworths, Coles, Housing activity

ACKey themes we are exploring today: AustralianBryan RaymondConsumer Sector

(61-2) 9003-6750

• Woolworths and Coles private label price premiums expanding vs. Aldi. bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

Both supermarkets saw their price premium to Aldi increase in July, with Coles Christina Kim

(61-2) 9003-7082

increasing to +9.4% (vs +9.2% in Jun) and Woolworths increasing to +9.2% (vs christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

+8.9% in Jun). Over the past 9 months, Woolworths and Coles’ premiums to J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Aldi have consistently drifted higher, from ~7.5% to ~9.3% on average. The

sequential premium uplift was driven by Aldi’s price cuts across Cheese and

Deli items, with a ~7% to ~10% step-down in several high volume Cheese

products. This is surprising given the inflation in dairy categories of late (Coles

attempted to lead the market up on Cheese in April). The key focus for the next

month would be whether: 1) Coles and Woolworths follow Aldi’s price move

down in Cheese; and 2) whether this is a signal of future Aldi price moves

across other high volume grocery categories. Despite broader inflation trends,

all three retailers saw flat or deflationary MoM pricing trends in July. Inflation

tailwinds have supported Coles and Woolworths’ re-rating in recent months, as

they trade 1.5x and 2.2x standard deviations above average, respectively

(+16% and +38% PER premiums to the general industrials). We recently

downgraded both Coles and Woolworths to Neutral. The risk to the