Volvo AB Q2 2026: Fully Loaded (Market-Perform)

Research evidence excerpt

Volvo AB Q2 2026: Fully Loaded (Market-Perform)

20 July 2026

Estimate Change

Harry Martin, CFA

+44 20 7676 8965

European Automobiles & Components harry.martin@bernsteinsg.com

Steve Pereira Fernandes, CFAVolvo AB

+44 20 7676 7254

Rating steve.pereira-fernandes@bernsteinsg.com

Market-Perform Stephen Reitman

+44 20 7762 5535

Price Target stephen.reitman@bernsteinsg.com

VOLVB.SS 320.00 SEK Specialist Sales

James Brady

+44 20 7762 5272

james.brady@bernsteinsg.com

As we wrote after Volvo’s recent CMD, while this is a very well-run business that generated

Close Date 17 Jul 2026

considerable shareholder value through the last cycle, we have a more cautious outlook

VOLVB.SS Close Price (SEK) 339.10

at today’s valuation. Little in the Q2 reporting changes our view that price/cost likely

Price Target (SEK) 320.00

underperforms going forward following the meaningful truck price increases of the last cycle,

Upside/(Downside) (6)%

plus the impact of new competition which is also raising capital intensity. The cycle is in an

52-Week Range 350.60/241.50

upward phase, but we believe this is already well reflected in the share price. Market-Perform.

EDME 1,592.62

2026 cycle momentum is well known, and isn’t (yet) bringing higher margins. Heading FYE Dec

into this reporting season, the improvements in the US truck cycle were well known and Div Yield 2.5%

priced into stocks (with Volvo +15% YTD prior to Friday). In a strong upcycle, as build slots Market Cap (SEK) (M) 689,500

get constrained truck OEMs are typically able to push price and mix and expand margins, so EV (SEK) (M) 666,309

we wondered if any of this would be evident at Q2. Group margins (+70bps YoY, including Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

+90bps in Trucks) were boosted by very strong aftermarket sales rather than truck pricing.