Europe Economic Weekly: Burnham’s in Mah-mood for spending

Research evidence excerpt

Europe Economic Weekly: Burnham’s in Mah-mood for spending

Global Markets Research

17 July 2026Europe Economic Weekly

Economics - EMEA/Euro Area/Europe

Research Analysts

Burnham’s in Mah-mood for spending European Economics

George Buckley - NIplc

• We forecast the ECB to leave rates on hold at the July meeting but hike in September. george.buckley@nomura.com

In Italy, PM Meloni finally got her electoral reform bill through the lower house. +44 (0) 20 7102 1800

Andrzej Szczepaniak - NIplc • Andy Burnham won the Labour leadership election and becomes UK PM Monday. andrzej.szczepaniak@nomura.com

Shabana Mahmood, from the right of the party, is tipped for Chancellor. +44 (0) 20 7102 3167

Josie Anderson - NIplc

Week in review josie.anderson@nomura.com

We forecast the ECB to leave rates unchanged on 23 July, despite the re-escalation of the +44 (0) 20 7102 4284

US-Iran war. We think the ECB will want to see evidence of how past rises in oil prices, as

well as the latest increase since the re-escalation of hostilities, percolates through the

economy before hiking in September. Elsewhere, Italy’s PM Meloni finally got her

contentious electoral reform bill through the lower house. Final euro area HICP data this

week revealed June’s softer print was due to food, energy, airfares and recreation prices.

Andy Burnham won Labour's leadership contest with backing from roughly 95% of Labour

MPs and becomes UK Prime Minister on Monday. In his speech, he highlighted devolution

and greater public service control as key agendas, plus more regional powers for social

housing. Burnham is likely to make cabinet appointments early next week and Shabana

Mahmood, current Home Secretary and from the right of Labour’s political spectrum, is

reportedly (source: FT) set to become Chancellor.