Japan chemicals: Investment ideas for slowdown in AI semiconductor demand

Research evidence excerpt

Japan chemicals: Investment ideas for slowdown in AI semiconductor demand

Nomura | Japan chemicals: Investment ideas for slowdown in AI semiconductor demand 17 July 2026

We estimate strong earnings at diversified chemicals in Apr–Jun thanks in part to

inventory valuation gains

We think diversified chemicals companies performed well in Apr–Jun 2026 on frontloaded

demand from customers concerned about petrochemical shortages, the booking of

naphtha inventory valuation gains, and sustained growth in demand for semiconductor

materials. However, these positives may run their course in Jul–Sep. We do not expect

any real improvement in fundamentals until companies start cutting ethylene production

capacity in Japan in Jan–Mar 2027. We think diversified chemicals will warrant attention

as share prices in the subsector relative to TOPIX tend to track ethylene capacity

utilization in Japan. Mitsui Chemicals [4183] (Neutral) has high sales exposure to

petrochemicals in Japan, and stands to benefit from reductions in ethylene production

capacity in the country (see our 26 June 2026 report Japandiversifiedchemicals:Points

towatchinApr–Junearnings-FocusonreturntonormalinMiddleEast,structural

reforms).

Potential improvement in packaging material spreads from Jul–Sep 2026

It looks as though packaging material producers have seen an increase in bargaining

power over converters, their customers. We could see a widening of spreads from Jul–

Sep 2026 onwards for packaging films at Toyobo [3101] (Neutral) and other products at

companies including DIC [4631] (Buy), artience [4634] (Neutral), and Sakata Inx [4633]

(Neutral). We think DIC stands to benefit in particular here, owing to its high exposure to