Indonesia Banks (double u/g BRI), India Banks (ICICI), Higher real rate

Research evidence excerpt

Indonesia Banks (double u/g BRI), India Banks (ICICI), Higher real rate

Specialist Sales

APAC Specialist Sales J P M O R G A N

20 July 2026

Indonesia Banks (double u/g BRI), India Banks (ICICI), Higher

real rate

Ayano Tsunoda

+81 3 6736 7628

ayano.tsunoda@jpmorgan.com

Key topics in today’s daily:

• India Banks: ICICI’s beat stood out (NIM expansion QoQ), benign AQ for the sector, Anuj webinar 1:30pm HKT today

• Indonesia Banks: Harsh’s BRI double upgrade, Co-specific tactical call as he remains cautious on the sector

• Higher real rates, but higher potential growth? Korea’s potential growth can improve to 2.5%

Today - JPM Call: Anuj Singla on India banks takeaway 1:30pm HKT (Register) Macro: China LPR

Good morning,

What stood out for me when I logged in for the first time in two weeks after a block leave is that the “higher-for-longer” rate

narrative is increasingly being viewed as structural. Our long-term strategy team has raised their expectations for 10Y real UST

yields to 2.5% in the longer run, arguing that structurally firmer inflation and higher term premium leave less room for policy

errors. (Joyce Chang’s top 10 strategic themes for 2H26: Link, Michael Feroli’s note on Warsh’s “very hawkishly stern remarks”

in his testimony: Link, Jay Barry’s analysis of the Warsh’s task forces: Link) And, the cyclical lift from recent data suggests a risk

of an earlier hike than expected. (Link)

While rising real interest rate expectations might be reducing equity risk appetite, i.e. AI stocks (Nick’s Flows & Liquidity:

Link, Masa Takada on CTAs entering stop-loss mode: Link), and my tech spec colleague sees that investors are now increasingly

viewing memory as cyclical (Duncan’s note: Link), AI tech boom might be lifting long-term potential growth outlook in some