Africa Edge

Research evidence excerpt

Africa Edge

Gbolahan S Taiwo (44-20) 3493-3412 Africa Economic Research J P M O R G A Ngbolahan.taiwo@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 20 July 2026

Francesco Arcangeli (44-20) 3493-0971

francesco.arcangeli@jpmorgan.com

Africa Edge istered prices – Egypt being the clearest example. In Egypt,

we had delayed our assumption for a 10% local fuel price

This is an extract from the EM Edge Data Watch. For the full increase to October. But if current oil levels hold over the

publication and thematic essay please use this link next couple of months, the balance of risk shifts toward an

earlier hike than we’ve penciled in.

• Africa Edge: Broad slowing of inflation momentum in

June but higher oil prices pose renewed risks On the monetary policy side, we see limited runway for addi-

• Nigeria: Sticky inflation to keep the CBN on HOLD tional easing across Africa Edge for the rest of the year –

Zambia and Angola are the main exceptions (Figure 2). Gha-

• Egypt BoP: Different policy response, better results na is the tricky case: real rates still look meaningfully posi-

• Angola: BNA leans more dovish; inflation profile should tive, but headline inflation has started to firm again (helped

allow for more easing by base effects). In that context, especially with elevated geo-

• Morocco: Growth accelerates in 2Q political risk and global uncertainty, we expect the BoG to

stay cautious rather than lean aggressively into further cuts.

• Suez Canal monitor

Africa Edge: Higher oil prices pose Figure 2: Rate cutting cycles for Africa Edge

renewed risks to inflation %pts 0

Gbolahan Taiwo

-1

Since the US–Iran conflict flared in February, inflation -2

momentum across the Africa Edge complex has generally -3

picked up—unevenly, but noticeably. By June, the story start-