India Consumer: Monsoon monitor: Deficit still large; second wet spell crucial

Research evidence excerpt

India Consumer: Monsoon monitor: Deficit still large; second wet spell crucial

southwest

monsoon season.

○ According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% chance of an El

Nino event in Jun-Aug.

○ Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) indicate a

further strengthening of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season.

• After a weak El Niño in June, the IMD expects El Niño to progress:

○ July and August – weak-to-moderate El Niño

○ September – Strong El Niño

○ We note it is more important to monitor the way El Niño is progressing; for the

most important part of the monsoon season, it is expected to be weak-to-

moderate.

• Neutral IOD conditions currently, but could turn positive – which could be good.

○ While the IMD expects IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) to remain neutral through the

monsoon season, most of the international agencies/models like IRI (International

Research Institute for climate and society) and NMME (North American Multi-Model

Ensemble) that work closely with WMO (World Meteorological Organisation) and NOAA

(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) indicate an increasing possibility of a

positive IOD from July and a high (>70-80%) probability for it to be positive in August and

September, which could negate the impact of El Niño.

Regional rainfall distribution forecast and impact on raw material / crops: (Fig.9)

• Northwest region: 22% below normal currently; the IMD expects below-normal

monsoon for the season.

○ Below-normal monsoon is expected to have a bearing on kharif crops such as rice,

sugarcane, and cereals grown in this region and impact milk production, in our view.

• Central: 14% below normal currently; the IMD expects below-normal monsoon for the

season.