Matsuzawa Morning Report

Research evidence excerpt

Matsuzawa Morning Report

Global Markets Research

17 July 2026Matsuzawa Morning Report

Macro Strategy - Japan

Research AnalystsScenarios for AI boom's end are becoming more complex

Strategy

Naka Matsuzawa - NSC

Will hyperscalers or semiconductors break first? naka.matsuzawa@nomura.com

+81 3 6703 3864

-Healthyprofitsandbullishinvestmentplansfromtechcompaniesarenottranslatinginto

higherstockprices.

-TherearemultiplescenariosfortheendoftheAIboom,leavingmarketparticipants

suspiciousanduncertain.

-ThereactiontoUShyperscalers’earningsandcapexplansoverthenexttwoweeksis

alsodifficulttopredict.

-IfmarketsweretrulypricingintheendoftheAIboom,bondsshouldbeboughton

expectationsofafutureshifttowardratecuts,butwehavenotyetreachedthatstage.

Today's Japanese markets

In Japanese markets on Friday, this author expects equities to remain in a decline and

bonds to show limited upside (in overnight futures trading, bonds were roughly flat and

equities were down JPY920 over OSE). In overseas markets yesterday, US tech stocks

remained soft, hurting the market's risk sentiment. US rates rose and USD remained firm

throughout the day, pointing to a reversal of excess liquidity. Conversely, oil fell back

despite continued tensions in the Middle East, and copper, gold, and bitcoin were down

across the board. While stock market volatility (VIX) rose, it continued to fall in the bond

and FX markets, with this particularly pronounced in the FX market (Figure 1). One reason

for this may be that, while the stock market will need to absorb corporate earnings results

in July, events affecting bonds and FX markets, such as monetary policy, are harder to

foresee. In the US bond market, rate hike expectations rebounded slightly, and yields rose

nearly in parallel in all maturities.