Post Holdings, Inc.: 3Q26 Preview - Another (Small) EBITDA Beat Seems Likely, Despite Underwhelming Measured Consumption Trends

Research evidence excerpt

Post Holdings, Inc.: 3Q26 Preview - Another (Small) EBITDA Beat Seems Likely, Despite Underwhelming Measured Consumption Trends

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

20 July 2026

Post Holdings, Inc.

3Q26 Preview - Another (Small) EBITDA Beat Seems Overweight

Likely, Despite Underwhelming Measured Consumption POST, POST US

Trends Price (17 Jul 26):$86.86

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$116.00

Prior (Dec-27):$119.00

Post Holdings (POST- Overweight) is scheduled to report fiscal 3Q26 (June)

Food Producers & Retailersearnings on Thursday, August 6, followed by its conference call the next morning.

For 3Q, we see downside risk to OSG, driven mainly by weak pet food Thomas Palmer, CFA AC

consumption trends in the Post Consumer Brands segments. Despite this, we look (1-212) 622-5582

thomas.palmer@jpmorgan.com

for depressed egg prices (an input cost for POST) to drive POST’s 19th consecutive

Brandon Cohen, CPA

quarterly EBITDA beat (albeit a smaller one than has been typical). Last quarter,

(1-212) 622-4168

POST broke its 12 quarter streak of raising its EBITDA guidance. We do not brandon.cohen@jpmorgan.com

necessarily anticipate an outright guidance hike this quarter, but we think the J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

company could guide to the upper half of its $1,550M to $1,580MM range (the

range is typically $15-20MM coming out of 3Q earnings). The POST shares have

Key Changes (FYE Sep)underperformed lately in the resurgent food group, so perhaps there is mean

Prev Cur Δ

reversion to be had. But it is tough to point to improving fundamentals as a 3Q Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 8.86 8.02 -9.4%

catalyst when considering the slow recovery in pet food trends and what could be

clearer messaging about flat to down EBITDA Y-Y in FY27. Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Sep)

Adj. EPS ($)