Brazil Election Countdown: Don‘t Rush Into Conclusions

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Election Countdown: Don‘t Rush Into Conclusions

J P M O R G A N Latin America Global Markets

Strategy

19 July 2026

Brazil Election Countdown

Don’t Rush Into Conclusions

There are roughly 75 days until the first round of the general elections in Brazil and Co-head of Emerging Markets Equity

a lot can still happen. Our thesis is that the race will remain undecided until the very Strategy and Head of LatAm and

end and that it is very tough to see the emergence of a “third way”. However, we Brazil Strategy

note that a lot can still happen. In past elections: Emy Shayo Cherman AC

(55-11) 4950-6684

• 2006: The “dossie dos aloprados” scandal took place on September 15, or 16 emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

days before the first round. It didn't change the outcome of the election (Lula Mirella Sampaio

won) but it might have had a negative impact on voting intentions. (55-11) 4950-3289

mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

• 2010: The scandal involving Erenice Guerra (then Dilma Rousseff’s Chief of Vinicius Moreira

Staff) came to light in mid-September, 18 days before the elections. It didn’t

(55-11) 4950-3195

change the outcome of the race as Dilma had a huge advantage then. vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

• 2014: The plane carrying presidential candidate Eduardo Campos fell on Cassiana Fernandez

August 13, or 53 days before the elections. That was when Marina Silva (55-11) 4950-3369

became a presidential candidate and at one point was widely seen as a potential cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

winner of the race. Cinthya M Mizuguchi

(55-11) 4950-6560

• 2018: The stabbing of Jair Bolsonaro took place on September 6, 32 days cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com

before elections. This was a turning point in the election which ended with Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

Bolsonaro’s victory.