ASEAN palm oil

Research evidence excerpt

ASEAN palm oil

Global Markets Research

17 July 2026ASEAN palm oil

EQUITY: AGRI-RELATED

Key newsflow (July 4 – 10) Research Analysts

ASEAN Agri-Related

Raghavendra Divekar, CFA - NSMQuick Note raghavendra.divekar@nomura.com

+603 2027 6893

Fig. 1: Nomura CPO price gauge

Research Associates We expect CPO prices to remain at ~MYR4,500/MT by 23 July 2026

Amol Dongre - NSFSPL

Source: Nomura estimates

We expect CPO prices to remain at ~MYR4,500/MT by 23 July 2026

The spot price for CPO (crude palm oil) was flat w-w at MYR4,493/MT in the week ended

16 July, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). This was largely due to

concerns about El Niño being balanced by expectations of higher production in Malaysia.

For the next week, we continue to expect prices to remain relatively steady as Indonesia

continues to roll out its B50 mandate. Overall, we expect the average CPO price to

remain at ~MYR4,500/MT by 23 July. However, if exports weaken and crude oil prices

decline, CPO prices could fall to ~MYR4,400/MT, in our view.

Indonesia’s palm oil stockpiles remained 15% below average in May

According to GAPKI data, Indonesia’s palm oil exports fell 28% m-m to 1.97mn MT in

May, compared to 2.78mn MT in April. As a result, CPO stockpiles improved 18.9% m-m

to 3.04mn MT as production declined 7.2% m-m to 4.55mn MT, with domestic

consumption also declining 2.9% m-m to 2.08mn MT and palm oil used towards biodiesel

declining 9.0% m-m to 1.04mn MT. Overall stockpiles are currently 15% below average

levels in May.

Our view: We understand that May exports were impacted by the higher CPO prices at

that time. In June, we saw a sharp increase in exports due to front loading ahead of the

full implementation of the single gate export policy. While we expect production continued