Global Data Watch

Research evidence excerpt

Global Data Watch

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

17 July 2026

Economic and Policy Research

• Cyclical lift speaking loudly and calls for earlier rate hikes Bruce(1-212) 834-5515Kasman

• China 2Q disappoints but bounce back expected; Imbalances unchecked bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

• Policy and regulatory reform could spark Latam capex revival Joseph Lupton

(1-212) 834-5735• Next week: DM flash Jul PMI; ECB hld; CBRT ease; BI, SARB +25bp

joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.com

The ins and outs of a cyclical lift Nora Szentivanyi

We have expected the Federal Reserve’s next move to be a hike, in contrast to the (44-20) 7134-7544

easing that was in FOMC projections and market pricing at the start of this year. nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Resilient US and global growth is expected to keep core inflation running around

3%ar, and produce a rebound in job growth that supports consumer spending and

tightens labor markets. This outcome does more than short-circuit rate cuts. It should Contents

also shake the Fed’s underlying supply-side optimism and belief that elevated Korea: Long-term growth implications of the tech

inflation persistence has transitory roots. Higher 1H26 inflation and a recent hawkish boom 13

It’s gonna take time: 2026 Mid-Year Brazil

tilt in FOMC rhetoric have prompted a shift in markets, which now price policy rates Economic Outlook 16

to rise roughly 30bp by year-end. Our forecast is for a more gradual turn toward a Fed UK politics: Ten views on the path ahead 20

hike in 2027. This has been based on two judgments. First, the 1H26 spike in core PCE France: Election line-up clearer as fiscal tensions

to a 4%ar overstates underlying pressures, and 2H26 will deliver a downshift that build up 23