Latin America Economic Research: Mexico

Research evidence excerpt

Latin America Economic Research: Mexico

d the US to continue negotiations in the coming domestic consumers to boost spending during the tournament,

months. USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer recently stated adding roughly 0.1pp to GDP growth. However, both credit

that “it’s going well with the Mexicans. They’re quite prag- card spending data and supermarket and department store

matic,” although he also highlighted the trade deficit as a key sales (ANTAD) disappointed in June, with annual declines

US concern. This reflects Mexico’s interest in securing a deal, recorded in both indicators. The disappointing travel and

given that an extension of the USMCA would help reduce spending figures pose downside risks to our growth forecast,

uncertainty, revive investment, preserve export competitive- but we must await more data before drawing conclusions.

ness, and provide a political win ahead of the 2027 mid-

terms. Data releases and forecasts

Table 1: USMCA renegotiation objectives Week of July 20-24

Key Objectives Description

Tue Retail sales

Reducing the trade

Narrow trade imbalances with Mexico and Canada. Jul 21 Feb Mar Apr May deficit

Protecting US agricul- 8:00am %oya -2.1 2.9 4.4 3.1

Limit competitive pressures from Mexican imports.

ture %m/m sa 0.5 0.2 0.8 0.1

Increasing US content

Increase US content requirements, particularly in

US in regional supply the auto sector (US suggestion: 50%). Thu Economic activity index (IGAE)

chains

Jul 23 %oya, unless noted

Safeguarding US Address policies perceived as favoring state-

investment in Mexico owned over private companies. 8:00am Feb Mar Apr May

Tightening rules of ori- Prevent transshipment through stricter origin %oya -0.9 1.4 2.3 1.9

gin requirements. %m/m sa 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.1

Reducing Section 232