North America Economic Research

Research evidence excerpt

North America Economic Research

Michael Feroli (1-212) 834-5523 Abiel Reinhart (1-617) 712 9122 North America Economic Research J P M O R G A Nmichael.e.feroli@jpmorgan.com abiel.reinhart@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA JPMorgan Chase Bank NA 17 July 2026

Michael S Hanson (1-212) 622-8603 Bennett Parrish (1-212) 622-9003

michael.s.hanson@jpmchase.com bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

United States and this week we released a report on their likely conclusions.

Chair Warsh also delivered his first semiannual monetary pol-

• June CPI came in softer than expected, with flat prices icy testimony to Congress. As expected, he gave no forward

in the core category guidance on rate policy. More curiously, his responses to

questions about economic developments did not delve into

• Consumers still unfazed by Hormuz, with retail spend- details about the current data, but stayed in the realm of broad

ing solid again in June

generalizations. Similarly, when asked about details of policy

• The FOMC is likely to hold at the end of the month, implementation--such as measures of reserve demand pres-

but is clearly still unnerved by high inflation sures--he only responded with economic platitudes.

• Next week is mostly quiet on the data front, with July

business surveys the most important information Naturally, other Fed speakers filled this vacuum. Notably,

Governor Waller gave remarks on the outlook just prior to the

The economic news this week was mostly favorable, with June CPI, which were notable for his near-term sensitivity to

softer inflation readings coupled with steady consumer spend- inflation. The body of his remarks noted reasons for optimism

ing growth.