The Intercontinental Exchange: Model update

Research evidence excerpt

The Intercontinental Exchange: Model update

Kenneth B. Worthington, CFA AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-6613 17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

kenneth.b.worthington@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

We rate ICE Overweight, as we see both secular and cyclical

opportunities boosting better results in ICE’s mortgage and data

business while being supported by a best-in-class energy trading

business that continues to gather share. We see the acquisition of

Black Knight contributing to the defensiveness of the stock and

providing a solid recurring revenue foundation for the business,

all while creating a more favorable value proposition as a “one-

stop shop” for mortgage technology throughout the life cycle of

a mortgage. ICE’s energy business also continues to gain share

YTD 1m 3m 12m in both oil and natural gas as it builds out its environmental

Abs -12.5% 0.3% -13.4% -21.6% business. Here, the legacy exchange—particularly in energy—

Rel -22.6% 0.0% -20.4% -41.9%

has not just been supported recently by the supply shocks in the

Company Data Middle East, but we also see secular drivers sustaining strong

Shares O/S (mn) 570 levels of activity here. Over the near term, we are confident in

52-week range ($) 189.35-121.79 management’s ability to continue to delever, as it has done so

Market cap ($ mn) 80,803.20

Exchange rate 1.00 successfully in previous acquisitions, while meaningfully

Free float (%) 99.4% returning capital to shareholders via stock buybacks. With a

3M ADV (mn) 4.25 solid management team and diverse opportunity set, we rate ICE

3M ADV ($ mn) 608.6

Volatility (90 Day) 27 Overweight.

Index S&P 500

ValuationBBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 17|1|0

Our Dec-2026 PT is $180 using a weighted average 25x earnings