EM Edge Data Watch: The pace is slowing, the risks are rising

Research evidence excerpt

EM Edge Data Watch: The pace is slowing, the risks are rising

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

17 July 2026

EM Edge Data Watch

The pace is slowing, the risks are rising

EM, Economic and Policy Research

Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc

(44 20) 7742-2466

nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• June inflation prints show broad-based slowdown in inflation momentum on Katherine(1-212) 834-2285Marney

lower fuel prices katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com

• But risks are rising due to the flare-up in the Middle East, Russia’s fuel crisis J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

and El Niño Juan Goldin

(57 601) 869 8746

• Asia and Latam are most exposed to a very strong El Niño, while Latam is least juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

exposed to renewed energy risks BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

• Limited easing in Africa, the CBSL to remain on hold and Middle East update

The near-term disinflation path appeared to be secure after the June cease-fire in the The EM Edge Data Watch weekly is our flagship publication providing in-depth coverage of 34

Gulf, until crude and refined product prices saw gains in recent weeks as fighting in economies not included in our Global Data Watch.

the Middle East intensified and Russia’s fuel crisis deepened. We maintain our view The EM Edge universe is far from unified and

includes countries with widely varying per capita

of disinflation ahead for now, but see risks of a slower inflation decline than previously GDP levels, economic structures and policy

envisaged. The ongoing El Niño poses additional risks against a backdrop of frameworks.

accelerating food inflation.

Incoming June CPI prints across major DM and EM economies confirmed the good

news regarding headline inflation: the energy surge that pushed headline CPI