Andeans

Research evidence excerpt

Andeans

l Niño (≥ +2.0°C) during far, the strongest effects have materialized in fisheries

November–January 2026/27 rose to 81% from 63% in a sin- through changes in ocean temperatures. Historically, the most

gle monthly update. Such a large move is better interpreted as disruptive impacts on agriculture tend to occur later, once

a genuine forecast revision than as a gradual evolution in atmospheric anomalies become more entrenched and rainfall

probability. Confidence that El Niño conditions will persist patterns shift more meaningfully. If the coastal El Niño inten-

into early spring 2027 also strengthened, rising to 97%. The sifies as currently anticipated, the greatest risks for agricul-

remaining uncertainty is not whether El Niño will occur, but ture would likely emerge during 4Q26 and into early 2027.

how intense it will be at its peak, and how long it persists.

As a result, sequential growth turned into negative territory,

As we have argued previously, two structural asymmetries down by 1.7%3m/3m saar (Figure 1). We expect 2Q to record

drive the regional macro story. Peru and Colombia occupy the a 1.1%ar gain, and maintain annual GDP at 3.0%y/y.

textbook El Niño configuration, where stronger ENSO epi-

Figure 1: Peru real economic activitysodes tend to weaken growth while pushing inflation higher.

%

Peru’s transmission runs through fisheries, flooding and dis- 10 %oya 3mma

ruptions associated with changes in the Humboldt Current, 8 %3m/3m saar

while Colombia’s exposure is concentrated in hydrological 6

drought and its heavily hydro-dependent power sector. Chile 4

is fundamentally different. El Niño typically brings above-av- 2

erage rainfall to the country’s central region, supporting agri- 0

culture and replenishing reservoirs. As a result, the macro -2