Brazil Steel: Data Steel: Our July 26 Steel Monthly Report

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Brazil Steel: Data Steel: Our July 26 Steel Monthly Report

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17 Jul 2026 12:15:32 ET │ 25 pages

Brazil Steel

Data Steel: Our July 26 Steel Monthly Report

CITI'S TAKE

Gabriel Barra AC

We have updated our Data Steel report (July/2026), with steel data from +55-11-4009-2223

IABR and import data from SECEX for the month of June/26. The main gabriel.barra@citi.com

takeaway from the data is that flat steel imports in Brazil rose again during

the month (283kt, 20% penetration), which we view as negative and Pedro Ferreira De Mello

somewhat expected, given the postponement of the decision on HRC (Hot- +55-21-4009-0425

Rolled Coil) anti-dumping to later in the year. This result, along with slightly pedro.mello@citi.com

lower prices from China (China HRC FOB decreasing from US$505/t to

US$483/t in the last two months), is in line with the recent performance of

operators such as Usiminas and CSN (the latter also catalyzed by

discussions regarding its liquidity/debt). On the other hand, in long steel, we

saw a slight month-over-month decrease in import volume to 99kt, with

import penetration stable at 13%.

Highlights — Despite a good MoM evolution in apparent demand for flat steel,

which is slightly above the average of recent years but at a lower level than last year,

this demand was largely captured by imports during the month, leading to stable

domestic sales. INDA's flat steel inventories remain high, which, combined with a

low exchange rate and the recent drop in Chinese prices, has slowed the pace of

price adjustments made in the first half of 2026 in the segment. We also track

monthly volumes by country and steel type, which show recent strength from

Vietnam, South Korea, and Egypt to the detriment of China, demonstrating

triangulation.