Brazil Diversified Metals & Mining: CSN & CMIN 2Q26 Preview: Mixed Results

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Brazil Diversified Metals & Mining: CSN & CMIN 2Q26 Preview: Mixed Results

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07 Jul 2026 18:24:15 ET │ 16 pages

Brazil Diversified Metals & Mining

CSN & CMIN 2Q26 Preview: Mixed Results

CITI'S TAKE

Gabriel Barra AC

We updated our model ahead of CSN’s and CMIN’s 2Q26 results, expected +55-11-4009-2223

to be reported on August 5. We forecast Adj. EBITDA of R$2.6bn for CSN gabriel.barra@citi.com

and R$1.0bn for CSN Mining. Overall, we see a mixed quarter: CSN should

be supported by stronger Steel (volumes and pricing) and Cement (value- Pedro Ferreira De Mello

over-volume strategy intact), while Mining is set to disappoint, penalized by +55-21-4009-0425

higher freight costs and a maintenance stoppage deferred from 1Q26 pedro.mello@citi.com

(heavily impacted by rainfall). We are lowering our target price for CMIN to

R$4.5/sh and for CSN to R$5/sh, reflecting updated iron ore price

assumptions and persistent execution risk around asset disposals.

CSN — Steel is expected to deliver a meaningful QoQ improvement, with Adj.

EBITDA of R$578mn and margin reaching ~10.7%. We believe the double-digit

margin level should be sustained into 2H26, supported by higher realized steel

prices and volume gains at the expense of imported steel market share. The

company is also actively working to reduce inventory levels, with a deliberate

mismatch between sales and production volumes, which should support working

capital dynamics going forward. Cement should continue to benefit from the

ongoing value-over-volume strategy, with higher revenue/t more than offsetting

lower dispatched volumes. This pricing discipline reinforces management's

commitment to profitability improvements. Logistics and Energy are expected to