Brazil Steel: Data Steel: Our Jun 26 Steel Monthly Report

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Steel: Data Steel: Our Jun 26 Steel Monthly Report

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22 Jun 2026 14:45:50 ET │ 24 pages

Brazil Steel

Data Steel: Our Jun 26 Steel Monthly Report

CITI'S TAKE

Gabriel Barra AC

We have updated our Data Steel report with IABr’s May/2026 data. +55-11-4009-2223

Apparent steel demand continues on a challenging trajectory this year: flat gabriel.barra@citi.com

steel performed -3.7% YTD and -18% YoY in May, while long steel is at -2.6%

YTD and -8.4% YoY in May. However, Brazilian steel companies are Pedro Ferreira De Mello

overcoming this trend and gaining market share, recording an increase of +55-21-4009-0425

+6.4% YoY in flat steel domestic sales in May (+1.6% YTD). In longs, pedro.mello@citi.com

domestic sales was -7% YoY in May and 0% up YTD. Imports continue to fall

(13% penetration in both segments, with a highlight of -4 bps MoM in flat

steel imports), a positive reflection of the AD measures implemented.

Despite these advances, inventories in INDA remain high and elevated

interest rates in Brazil environment acts as a significant headwind for the

reduction of these inventories, limiting an even more favorable volume and

prices growth.

Highlights and Implications – Regarding prices, we noted that Chinese flat steel

prices showed an increase in May, rising from US$493/t at the end of April to a peak

of US$506/t, but this appreciation was not sustained, as it fell in recent weeks,

stabilizing at US$492/t. This volatility, in our view, reinforced the correction

trajectory for stocks like Usiminas, which still rallied ~54% YTD, and CSN in recent

weeks. The current prices level of approximately US$500/t represents an increase of

about US$50/t compared to the same period last year, but still historically low and

with the Chinese industry near breakeven.