Aviva plc: 1H26 Results Preview: Expect confirmed profit guidance, improving combined ratio and solvency

Research evidence excerpt

Aviva plc: 1H26 Results Preview: Expect confirmed profit guidance, improving combined ratio and solvency

C A Z E N O V E Europe Equity Research

17 July 2026

Aviva plc Neutral

AV.L, AV/ LN

1H26 Results Preview: Expect confirmed profit Price (16 Jul 26):659p

guidance, improving combined ratio and solvency Price Target (Dec-27):715p

We raise our estimates for Aviva ahead of its 1H26 results on 14 August, with a ~3% European Insurance

ACincrease to 2026E EPS and ~2% to 2027-28E. This takes our estimates in line with Farooq Hanif

the company's guidance for 2028E EPS of ~75p, based on a 11% EPS CAGR in (44 207) 742-8091

2025-28 following the Direct Line deal. There are a lot of different moving parts farooq.hanif@jpmorgan.com

that drive our higher estimate, but the key driver is higher estimates in the IWR Bingdi Fan, CFA

(Insurance, Wealth & Retirement) division. We summarise the key changes to our (44-20) 7742-5336

estimates in Figure 1Aviva–sumaryofchangestoourestimates. bingdi.fan@jpmorgan.com

Kamran M Hossain

• Higher IWR operating profit forecasts are due to higher non-insurance (44-20) 3493-3780

profits, mainly from our AUM growth and margin assumptions for Wealth. We kamran.hossain@jpmorgan.com

expect Aviva to present a deep dive on its Wealth division in 4Q26, highlighting Nadia Claressa

the potential for attractive growth and operating leverage beyond 2027E. (44-20) 7134-7613

nadia.claressa@jpmorgan.com

• We lower UK General Insurance forecasts from 2027 onwards, due to J.P. Morgan Securities plc

lower assumed revenue growth, offset by higher underwriting profits in

Canada General insurance as underlying loss ratios benefit from pricing Specialist Sales contact details:

actions and continued reserve releases. Gigi Sparling - Specialist Sales -

European Financials