Managed Medicaid: Read Across from ELV and UNH‘s Medicaid Commentary

Research evidence excerpt

Managed Medicaid: Read Across from ELV and UNH‘s Medicaid Commentary

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

17 July 2026

Managed Medicaid

Read Across from ELV and UNH’s Medicaid

Commentary

We wanted to follow up on UNH’s commentary on Thursday and ELV’s Managed Care and Facilities

ACcommentary on Wednesday as they relate to Managed Medicaid MCOs. We'd John Stansel, CFA

frame the commentary as defending/reaffirming existing Medicaid guidance, but (1-212) 622-0083

with our interpretation of ELV’s commentary suggesting that utilization was john.stansel@jpmorgan.com

running higher (offset by rate favorability). The commentary is not colossally Lisa C. Gill

negative on its own, but it doesn't make the case for Medicaid outperformance (1-212) 622-6466

versus guidance (which we believe both MOH/CNC saw in 1Q), and while we lisa.c.gill@jpmorgan.com

think current consensus expectations for both CNC and MOH don't assume further Benjamin Rossi

outperformance in MLR for 2Q, we think CNC/MOH’s multiple expansion post- (1-212) 622-9603

benjamin.rossi@jpmorgan.com

1Q (CNC ~2-turn expansion on 2027e P/E to 14x since April and MOH ~4-turn

Cole Harrisexpansion to 24x) suggests investors expect that 2Q will see MLR outperformance

(1-212) 622-9068

with increases to adj. EPS guidance (although we think much of this rests on the cole.harris@jpmorgan.com

ACA Exchanges for CNC). The commentary around potential Medicaid market J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

exits by ELV over the next 12-18 months strikes us as a short-term opportunity for

market share in Medicaid, with some longer-term caveats. Putting it all together,

while we think the Bloomberg consensus MLRs are reasonable for 2Q, we believe

investor expectations may be higher, and given the more neutral tone on Medicaid