European Economics Week Ahead: Week of 20 July

Research evidence excerpt

European Economics Week Ahead: Week of 20 July

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17 Jul 2026 10:34:16 ET │ 8 pages

European Economics Week Ahead

Week of 20 July

CITI'S TAKE

Giada Giani AC

We see the ECB on hold next week. We think the July flash PMIs will be the +39-02-8906-8211

most important data for the eurozone and we pencil in another timid gain. giada.giani@citi.com

In the UK, inflation will likely remain modest in June, but we now see prices

picking up again towards the end of the year on higher gas prices. We will Michel Nies AC

also, once again, see a new prime minister take office and so expect a flurry +44-20-7986-3303

of policy announcements. michel.nies@citi.com

Callum McLaren-Stewart ACECB meeting — We expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged next week. Despite the

resurfacing tensions in the Middle-East and rising oil prices, these remain somewhat +44-20-7500-1604

below the June baseline assumptions and signs of second-round effects remain callum.mclarenstewart@citi.com

limited, likely warranting a pause in contrast to our earlier expectations. However, AC May Rostomwe still envisage another rate hike before the year-end.

+44-20-7986-2154

Eurozone PMIs, ZEW, consumer sentiment —We see further timid gains in the July may.rostom@citi.com

manufacturing PMI supporting the idea of a moderate recovery remaining in place

here supported by the global cycle. The recent increase in oil prices may hold back

the services PMI again, but the overall composite should increase and move slightly

above 50. The ZEW investor sentiment will likely post another solid gain buoyed by

higher equity prices. Flash consumer sentiment for July may have stopped

improving given rising fuel prices.

Eurozone inflation expectations — This is a closely watched indicator by the ECB at