United Kingdom

Research evidence excerpt

United Kingdom

ricing surveys.

for example energy support if prices remain high, but the big

fiscal changes are likely to be saved for the next budget (like-

The past two CPI reports have surprised to the downside. We

ly in Oct/Nov).

look for a drop in the headline CPI in next week’s report,

from 2.8% to 2.6%oya. That reflects the drop in pump prices

Bailey spoke in front of the Treasury committee this week for petrol and diesel in particular, but if parts of core were to

and gave his annual Mansion House speech. He spoke about exhibit signs of indirect effects from energy – as suggested by

the need to ensure regulation doesn’t stand in the way of the surveys – this could prompt an earlier change of tone

growth, which has been interpreted by some as a view pur- from the MPC. We expect next week’s labour market report

posely timed ahead of Burnham’s tenure as prime minister. to show a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.0%, and sub-3%

private sector average earnings growth.

Bailey’s comments on the macro economy were brief. He

remains of the view that inflation would have returned to 2%

Data releases and forecaststhis year in the absence of the energy shock. At the Sintra

conference two weeks back this point was effectively used as Week of July 20-24

a justification not to raise rates this week. While this argu-

ment may still be valid despite the latest rise in market energy Mon Rightmove House Price Index

prices, natural gas prices have risen by almost 40% from the Jul 20 Nsa

recent lows, and the BoE now faces the prospect of inflation 12:01am Apr May Jun Jul

running above 3% through to next summer if market pricing %m/m 0.8 1.2 -0.6

stays where it is.

This period includes the early 2027 wage round, and may

increase the risk of second-round effects.