European Credit Weekly: Views from the road

Research evidence excerpt

European Credit Weekly: Views from the road

J P M O R G A N Europe Credit Research

17 July 2026

European Credit Weekly

Views from the road

• This week we published High Yield Talking Points: Mid-year default Europe Corporate Credit - Strategy

AC wrap. Matthew Bailey

• We provide feedback from our conversations with investors over the past (44-20)matthew.a.bailey@jpmorgan.com7134-2384

four weeks since we published our Mid-Year Outlook.

Samuel Hayani AC

Euro credit traded sideways this week, with investment grade 1bp wider and high (44 20) 3493-4001

yield 3bp tighter. This was, once again, impressive resilience in the face of samuel.hayani@jpmorgan.com

volatility which is spreading across broader markets. Notably, Brent oil prices rose Daniel Lamy AC

by $10/bbl to their highest level since early June, with the US-Iran MoU appearing (44-20) 7134-0467

daniel.lamy@jpmorgan.com

to have collapsed amid a significant escalation in hostilities. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Our commodity strategists remain sanguine for now, maintaining their 3Q26 Brent

forecast at $86/bbl, but this clearly raises the risk of the ‘alternative scenario’ laid

out in our European Credit Strategy Mid-Year Outlook, with investment grade

moving significantly wider if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and global oil

inventories approach tank bottoms. We would also flag that the price of refined

products is arguably more relevant than crude itself for the economy - and hence

for credit markets -, and these prices are closer to the year-to-date highs, with

refinery output falling across the Middle East, China, and now Russia (Figure 1USADailyNationalGasolinePrice,$/gal).

We also remain concerned about gas markets, with TTF up by another €9/MWh

this week (Figure 2TF1mForwardPrice,€/MWh).