Travelers Cos: 2Q26 First Take: Strong Results Across Most Metrics

Research evidence excerpt

Travelers Cos: 2Q26 First Take: Strong Results Across Most Metrics

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

17 July 2026

Travelers Cos Neutral

TRV, TRV US

2Q26 First Take: Strong Results Across Most Metrics Price (16 Jul 26):$337.82

Insurance - Life & Nonlife

Healthy print across most key metrics. Headline underwriting income benefited Pablo S. Singzon AC

from favorable reserve releases and lower catastrophe losses, but core (1-212) 622-2295

underwriting still exceeded expectations, driven by business insurance and pablo.s.singzon@jpmorgan.com

personal lines. Net written premiums, net investment income, and share buybacks Kevin Wijendra

were also better than expected. Renewal pricing continued to deteriorate in middle (1-212) 622-7054

market, but was stable in select accounts following a sequential stepdown in 1Q26. kevin.wijendra@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

The expense ratio was higher than expected at 29.0%, but TRV reiterated its full-

year expectation of 28.5%, which implies expense ratio improvement in 2H26.

2Q26 Results

• Strong results overall. 2Q26 EPS was $10.04, well above our $5.33 estimate

and consensus of $5.37. Compared to our model, catastrophe losses ($518 Adjusted EPS: $10.04A. $5.33E

million vs. our $1,133 million estimate) and reserve releases ($578 million vs. Combined ratio (CR): 83.6% vs. 95.1%E

our $69 million estimate) were significantly better than assumed, adding up to CR ex. cats & PYD: 84.1% vs. 85.3%E

a favorable variance of $1,124 million ($888 million after taxes, or $4.13 per NPW growth: 0% vs. -2%E

share). Adjusting for these items, we estimate TRV’s reported EPS would have

Net inv. inc.: $1,070 mil. vs. $1,048 mil.E been $5.91, still better than our estimate and consensus, driven by higher core