Greater China

Research evidence excerpt

Greater China

Feng Zhu (852) 2800 1745 Jiayi Li (852) 2800-5229 Asia Pacific Economic Research J P M O R G A Nfeng.zhu@jpmorgan.com jiayi.c.li@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Hong Kong Branch 17 July 2026

Tingting Ge (852) 2800-0143 Tongfang Yuan (852) 2800-0085

tingting.ge@jpmorgan.com tongfang.yuan@jpmorgan.com

Greater China weak.

• China: 2Q GDP disappoints even as June IP surprises Revise full-year and 2H GDP forecast

to the upside

2Q real GDP missed our expectations, slowing to 4.3%oya in

• We revise down our full-year GDP growth forecast, 2Q from 5.0% in 1Q, with sequential growth easing to 2.4%q/

while lifting 3Q/4Q on stronger fiscal support q saar. We have lowered our full-year real GDP forecast to

• Exports strengthened, imports stayed input-led 4.6%y/y from 4.7% (Table 1), reflecting weaker domestic

demand and a tougher external environment. At the same

• Credit disappointed on weak loan demand time, we revise up sequential growth to 4.3%q/q saar in 3Q

• Next week: China LPR; Hong Kong CPI; Taiwan and 4.9% in 4Q, from 3.5% and 3.7%, respectively. The 3Q

export orders, labor, and IP upgrade reflects likely stronger fiscal delivery after the 2Q

undershoot, while the 4Q upgrade assumes possible addition-

2Q GDP disappointed our expectations and slowed to al out-of-budget support to keep 2026 growth within the

4.3%oya, even as June IP rebounded to 5.3%oya on high- 4.5–5.0% target range. Even so, the growth cushion remains

tech, electronics and trade-linked output. Retail sales rose narrow: external demand and industrial upgrading are still

only 1.0%oya, investment and housing stayed weak, and doing the heavy lifting, while domestic absorption is too

exports remained resilient but were still a cushion rather than weak to sustain a broader recovery.