JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

Research evidence excerpt

JPM EM Corporate Strategy Daily

J P M O R G A N Global Credit Research

17 July 2026

Emerging Markets Corporate

Strategy

Yang-Myung Hong AC

(1-212) 834-4274

ym.hong@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Markets have been trading mostly sideways over the past month as a summer

Alisa Meyers

mood is kicking in after an exhausting first half of unexpected and intense

(1-212) 834-9151

headline risks, according to the latest EMOS. These emanated from the US-Iran alisa.meyers@jpmorgan.com

conflict, which was then followed by the digestion of a new Fed chair who seems J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

determined to dismantle the institution’s forward guidance framework—leading to Dhawal U Mehta

“reaction function” discovery. This backdrop was joined in July by stark (91-22) 6157 3779

crosscurrents of apparently "goldilocks” data contrasted with a re-escalation of the dhawal.mehta@jpmchase.com

conflict, which is once again putting pressure on energy prices. EM assets have J.P. Morgan India Private Limited

held onto the strong gains of the 2Q but have done little over the month. Carry

continues to hold sway in local markets—where the stellar performance of frontier

local markets and solid gains in traditional high yielders continue to hold up, helped

by a reprieve in recent weeks from USD strength. Within credit, the carry theme

is seen in IG-HY compression, which is supporting high-yielders.

Our recommendations remain little changed from those laid out in our mid-

year outlook last month: OW EM FX supported by the cyclical outlook; MW

EM rates, recognizing increasing two-sided risks for inflation and central

banks; and MW EM credit, both sovereigns and corporates, as tight

valuations lean against an otherwise constructive tone. In EM FX, a hawkish