Forward Focus | CEEMEA: Key Metrics into Earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Forward Focus | CEEMEA: Key Metrics into Earnings

EMEA Equity Research AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-9899 17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

EER_publications@jpmorgan.com

Catalyst Watch

Clients tell us that their most valuable counterparts are those who successfully differentiate signal from noise. Aimed to provide clarity

around the particularly busy periods of reporting and upcoming events, Catalyst Watch is our short-term conviction indicator for our

coverage universe. It is an optional indicator our research analysts can apply into a specific event in order to articulate short term positivity

or caution based on near-term fundamentals. As such, it can differ from the analysts’ published ratings, which are sector relative and longer

term in nature.

Positive Catalyst Watch

Ticker Company Catalyst Catalyst Date Rating Rationale Link

Name

GFI SJ Gold Fields Ltd 1H26 25-Aug-2026 OW If Mgmt can demonstrate progress in its negotiations with the Ghana government (and Link

results potentially positive updates on its Windfall project), this could help GFI recover its

Ghana-related underperformance. Our 1H26 EBITDA is 7% above Bloomberg

consensus.

Negative Catalyst Watch

AAL LN Anglo American 2Q26 23-Jul-2026 UW We expect cost-inflation-driven earnings disappointments on unique exposure to high Link

PLC production Brazil and South Africa iron ore freight rates, with our 1H26 EBITDA estimates 6% below

report BBG consensus.

KAP LI NAC 1H26 Aug-2026 N We expect near-term earnings risk driven by oil price-related inflation on transportation Link

Kazatomprom results (TBC) and consumables, higher sulphuric acid costs, and FX headwinds as the Kazakh Tenge

JSC has strengthened against the USD. Our 2026E EBIT/net income estimates are 15%

below Bloomberg consensus.