CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Summer of carry, SARB comments, PL CA lower deficit, PL sticky core inflation

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CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily: Summer of carry, SARB comments, PL CA lower deficit, PL sticky core inflation

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17 Jul 2026 05:41:40 ET │ 17 pages

CEEMEA Economics & Strategy Daily

Summer of carry, SARB comments, PL CA lower deficit, PL sticky core

inflation

Luis E Costa, CFA AC

CITI'S TAKE +44-20-7986-9757

As we head into peak summertime, we backtest EMFX carry trades from a luis.costa@citi.com

seasonal perspective, using different iterations of the carry trade. AC Alexander Rozhetskin

+44-20-7508-4787

Global Macro – As we head into peak summertime, we backtest EMFX carry trades alexander.rozhetskin@citi.com

from a seasonal perspective, using different iterations of the carry trade. We find that

while July offers a historically favorable risk-return profile, August consistently Bhumika Gupta AC

proves to be a volatile and unfavorable month across our backtests. It exhibits high +44-20-7986-5933

volatility and negative mean returns, which we attribute to crowded positioning bhumika1.gupta@citi.com

creating vulnerability to unexpected headlines. Conversely, January is the strongest

period historically, consistently delivering high returns with low volatility as new risk Nikola Apostolov AC

is deployed at the start of the year. We also find that vol-weighting strategies can +44-20-7986-6499

mitigate some August downside, but caution is still warranted. nikola.apostolov@citi.com

Poland – May data regarding current account balance proved better than expected. Katie Kironde AC

The CA deficit narrowed to EUR 1,071 mn versus EUR 1,541 mn a month ago, with the +44-20-7986-3315

improvement primarily driven by a lower trade balance deficit, which tightened from katie.kironde@citi.com

EUR -1,972 mn in April to EUR -1,182 mn in May.

CEEMEA Economics