LATAM FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM FIRST TO MARKET

Latam Equity Research AC Latin America Equity Research

(1-212) 270-6000 17 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

morganwise@jpmorgan.com

We are adjusting our 2H26 estimates to reflect the poor set of results, a still-soft operating environment, and a run-rate

broadly consistent with 1H26, which saw NOI/EBITDA decline -15%/-18% y/y. The 1H26 weakness was demand-driven

rather than rate-driven: while ADR held up on the World Cup boost, occupancy fell to multi-year lows across several markets,

compounded by peso appreciation, a sharp Cancún contraction, and displaced corporate and group travel. We expect these

pressures to persist into 2H26, as management has flagged a seasonally weak 3Q with soft forward bookings and no demand

inflection expected before 4Q, ongoing peso and USMCA uncertainty, and the Condesa Cancún now guided to only its fixed

rent for the balance of the year. Thus, we are establishing a Dec-27 PT of Ps7.50 (vs. Dec-26 of Ps 8.00) and maintaining our

UW rating, as we see limited structural catalysts to change the earnings trajectory given persistent demand softness,

structurally higher labor costs, and FX headwinds that continue to weigh on Cancún and border-market performance. FIHO

currently trades at 7.8x 27e EV/EBITDA, below Asian/US peers average of ~9x/11x, with a still attractive 8.4% dividend yield.

MBRF (Lucas Ferreira) (MBRF3 BZ, OW, PT R$22.50)

2Q26 Preview: Moving Slowly, But Forward; Maintain OW

We are publishing our 2Q preview for MBRF: we expect modest improvement from 1Q, but do not expect results to be a

material trigger for the stock. We model 2Q EBITDA of R$3.23bn, 3% above consensus, up 7% y/y and 4.4% q/q. We see

sequential improvement in all business units, led by Brazil prepared foods and international chicken margins.