The Point for Latin America

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Latin America

Industry

Latin America Retail - LatAm Headline Monitor: E-Commerce Logistics Update,

US Tariffs on Brazil, ASAI Pharmacies, GLP-1 Shift

In this note, we summarize headlines/news with implications for our coverage. We

hope you find this useful.

João Pedro Soares | Felipe Husein

Brazil Apparel - Be Aware of Cross-Border Competition

The Brazilian Federal Revenue Service published data from the Conformity

Program "Remessa Conforme" suggesting that cross-border volumes surged in

June, coinciding with the recent removal of the federal import tax exemption.

While the data remain preliminary and we would prefer to see how these trends

evolve over time, it naturally raises a yellow flag around the potential

reacceleration of competition from cross-border players such as Shein. The last

time these platforms benefited from favorable tax treatment, the main impact on

local apparel retailers (LREN, CEAB, RIAA, and AZZA) came through intensified

pricing competition, particularly in an environment of restrictive credit origination

and softer consumer demand. In this context, we see some downside risk to

estimates if import growth remains at current levels, even as valuations already

appear heavily discounted (e.g., LREN trading at ~8x 2027 P/E and CEAB at ~6x).

Latin America Diversified Banks - Chart(s) of the Week: Earnings vs. price

changes for Brazilian Financials

For this edition, we explore the changes in 2Q26 and 2027 consensus estimates

since 1Q26 across our Brazilian Financials coverage. In terms of negative revisions

for 2027 estimates, BBAS (-9%), INTR (-6%), STNE (-5%), XP (-5%) and NU (-4%),

while on the positive side B3 (+7%), PSSA (+4%), BPAC (+2%), CXSE (+2%) and

BBDC (+0.4%) lead the ranking. 2Q26 estimates have been more volatile, with the