France: Election line-up clearer as fiscal tensions build up

Research evidence excerpt

France: Election line-up clearer as fiscal tensions build up

Raphael Brun-Aguerre (33-1) 8703 2409 Europe Economic Research J P M O R G A Nraphael.x.brun-aguerre@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 17 July 2026

France: Election line-up the presidential election.

clearer as fiscal tensions This position is risky. The appeals court also reduced the pris-

build up ontionalsentenceperiodbutto beLe servedPen is understill subjectelectronicto a one-yearmonitoring.uncondi-Le Pen

has appealed the latest decision, which will now be heard by

• Le Pen will be the National Rally candidate for the the Court of Cassation, the country's highest appeals court. Le

presidential election Pen’s lawyers assume that the ruling will not be made before

• Current polls suggest she has a decent chance of win- the presidential election, but this is not guaranteed. A ruling

ning the election against her before the election would require her to campaign

under electronic monitoring, constraining her campaign on

• Required fiscal adjustment to meet 5.0% 2026 deficit practical grounds. She would be asked to spend the evening at

objective now larger; risks tilted towards bigger deficit

home and as a result would not be able to travel easily. How-

• Election campaign could positively impact 2027 bud- ever, a ruling against her after the presidential election would

get negotiation; market pressure will be key factor not have near-term consequences if she is elected: a president

has immunity and cannot be prosecuted during its mandate.

Momentum around the 2027 French presidential election is

gradually building. The news last week was particularly

important as the National Rally candidate, the party leading ...and leads the polls

first round polls, is now known.