Sales & Trading

Research evidence excerpt

Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 17 July 2026

EM FX

RUB A bit of early softness in usd/rub was soon reversed and the pair closed the day modestly higher

at 78.25. Not loads to add other than it feels like spot could edge up through recent highs soon.

ZAR Back up to the 16.45/50 sell zone. The back drop doesn’t feel overly conducive however to start

selling here, with the US potentially striking Iranian infrastructure which in turn could see the

Houthi’s close the Red Sea shipping route. Outside geopolitics however, I do remain bullish on

the backdrop given softening US inflation but global growth remaining OK. Not the easiest

environment right now, exacerbated by thinning summer liquidity. Happy to be flat into the

weekend in ZAR and see where we open Monday.

TRY Price action in TRY remains sticky around state-bank offers, currently offering at 47.1650. We

continue to run long TRY positions with a higher conviction post the Istanbul forum, as we

believe that any change in the FX policy framework is unlikely anytime soon. There also

appears to be limited near-term political pressure on the framework, with political risks

contained for now. Early elections are seen as highly unlikely before late 2027. There are

definitely signs that disinflation process has stalled, but inflation seems more likely to settle

around current levels, or edge slightly lower, than to turn meaningfully higher again. The bar

for changing the FX crawl still looks high, as we think that inflation would likely need to

surprise meaningfully in either direction before policymakers reconsider the pace of

depreciation.