Sales & Trading

Research evidence excerpt

Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 17 July 2026

G10 FX

EUR Another night of attacks in Iran has not really moved the needle much in oil but risk is softer as

tech suffers and this has dragged US 2yr yields to fresh post CPI lows, after a week of spread

paying hard to have much conviction in the USD at this juncture. Burnham coronation drifts

closer and draws all the media focus in the UK not all headlines are rosy as there are reports of

left wing revolts over Mahmood (Times) while expectations are growing that there will be a raft

GBP of policy announcements (North Sea and Nationalization) on the immediate horizon. Saw a

decent relaxation in GBP yesterday as SHF finally broke their sell streak while RM were also

modest net sellers, taking a step back the technicals do not look good as cable has rejected 1.35

while the RSIs in EURGBP have now flipped back into neutral territory (a decent mean

reversion signal). I admittedly started fading GBP too early and now find myself flat wondering,

still think it is worth seeing what Andy says next week before getting more involved, until then,

keeping it tactical. 0.8470/0.86 in EURGBP while 1.3490/00 turns resistance in GBPUSD,

support remains 1.3325. Nothing to really add in EURUSD 1.1340/1.1480 still levels to watch

while the SHF sell streak continues (17).

JPY GPIF story gathering pace and still remains underappreciated *TAKAICHI: GPIF INVESTING

IN JAPAN ASSETS IS KEY INITIATIVE. Now that the PM has thrown her weight behind the

shift it becomes a matter of when not if and as I wrote yesterday this remains the consideration

for JPY bulls. By extension this underscores the shortened patience on JPY and JGB weakness