The Point for Europe

Research evidence excerpt

The Point for Europe

Point |

Friday, 17 July 2026

Top Call | Company | Industry | Strategy & Economics | Commodities | Key Rating and Target Price

Changes

Top Call Must Read

Global Integrated Oil & Gas - Essential Energy - What IOC 2Q26 Trading Global Economic Outlook & Strategy -

Statements Have Told Us The Resilient Global Economy—

The Global IOCs have now largely all given their updates on 2Q26, ahead of the Cascading Supply Shocks

earnings releases themselves that will come later this month. Three trends are

notable from the releases: (1) earnings are indicated c. 3-5% better than what the

market had forecast before the updates, with capture of better Downstream more

than offsetting what has been a slightly more difficult picture in Upstream; (2) oil

trading activities, like it did in 1Q, look to have provided a significantly positive

contribution for the industry, whereas gas trading has been significantly more

variable; and (3) the language of tight capital reinvestment and de-leverage shines

through across the industry.

Alastair R Syme

TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) - 2Q26 Downstream Upturn Challenged by Weaker Gas

Trading

TotalEnergies' 2Q trading statement looks incrementally negative versus market

expectations, with gains in Downstream (margin improvements in refining and

petrochemicals, seasonality in fuels marketing) impacted by weakness in gas

trading (attributed to weakening European gas prices) and production underlift.

We lower our previous quarterly EPS forecast by 14% and our FY26 estimate by 5%,

the latter including the updated Citi Commodity view that - despite the ongoing

uncertain geopolitical backdrop - oil markets run the risk of being oversupplied in

2H26.

bp (BP.L) - From Electrons Back to Molecules, but Will Need Some Re-Shaping