U.S. Bancorp: 2Q Led By Strong Capital Markets Fees; Fee Guidance Seems Conservative; Disclosure, 3Q Funding, Risk?

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Bancorp: 2Q Led By Strong Capital Markets Fees; Fee Guidance Seems Conservative; Disclosure, 3Q Funding, Risk?

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

17 July 2026

U.S. Bancorp Underweight

USB, USB US

2Q Led By Strong Capital Markets Fees; Fee Guidance Price (16 Jul 26):$64.01

Seems Conservative; Disclosure, 3Q Funding, Risk? Price Target (Dec-26):$65.00

USB posted 2Q core EPS of $1.37 excluding securities loss, reported EPS was Banks — Large-Cap

AC$1.35. 2Q results were marked by continued strong de novo growth in capital Vivek Juneja

markets fees which was boosted by BTIG acquisition. We expect capital markets (1-212) 622-6465

fees growth including BTIG to remain strong in 2H given high activity levels vivek.juneja@jpmorgan.com

including likely large amount of equity issuance. Sizable increase in trading Andrew J Dietrich

revenues and growth in credit cards bear watching from risk standpoint. (1-212) 622-4244

aj.dietrich@jpmorgan.com

• Key points to note: 1) Capital markets revenues are growing very sharply Sai M Nettem

- these would have accounted for about 9% of total revenues in 2Q if BTIG were (1-212) 622-2666

included for full 2Q; USB’s target is 10% of total revenues. However, despite sai.nettem@jpmorgan.com

this rapid growth and its size, disclosure has not kept up - there is no breakdown J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

between investment banking and trading revenues which have different risk

profiles and drivers, as well as breakdown between FICC and equities with Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

geographical breakdown of equities which has a very wide footprint across the Reported EPS ($)

world. 2) Credit card loans are growing faster than at any of our large card 2025A 2026E 2027E

banks, up 9% yoy while consumers get stretched.