Global Macro Strategy: Macro mezze for the summer BBQ: 4 key themes

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Strategy: Macro mezze for the summer BBQ: 4 key themes

policy. Keynote, 2024 US Monetary Policy volatility" when exiting QE. (2014) / "TheFederalReserve'sBalanceSheetasa formal distinction between crisis-era QE and steady-state operations.

Forum on quantitative tightening. Financial-StabilityTool" (Jackson Hole, 2016).

DATA — ImprovethequalityandtimelinessofrealeconomicsignalsinformingtheFed'spolicyjudgments.Likelyoutcome:Recommendmorereal-timeandprivate-sectordata.

William A. Ackman Professor of Public Economics,

Harvard. Director, Opportunity Insights. Clark Medal "Thepoweroftheselargedatasetsisthatyoucanessentiallyfindexperimentswhen Will push the Fed to formalize relationships with private-sector data providers and adopt high-

Raj Chetty (2013); MacArthur Fellowship (2012). Pioneered use of tax youhaveadequatedataifyou'recreative." / Economic connectedness via Facebook frequency administrative data into FOMC monitoring, reducing reliance on lagged, heavily

records, credit card data, and social network data to track data is "amongthestrongestpredictorsofupwardincomemobilityidentifiedtodate." revised government surveys. Could reshape how the Fed characterizes labor and consumer

economic conditions in near real time. (Nature, 2022) conditions in real time.

Former President & CEO, Walmart (retired Jan. 2026).

Oversaw 2.1M employees, ~6% of U.S. retail sales, ~20% Walmart's transaction, pricing, and labor data could be very informative. His participation

Doug McMillon of U.S. groceries. Walmart operates as one of the most NA signals the task force may recommend the Fed formalize data-sharing arrangements with

powerful real-time economic barometers in existence. large private-sector operators.

George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor, U. of