United Airlines Holdings Inc: United guides core up, but market penalizes for fuel conservatism

Research evidence excerpt

United Airlines Holdings Inc: United guides core up, but market penalizes for fuel conservatism

J P M O R G A N North America Fundamental

Research

16 July 2026

United Airlines Holdings Inc Overweight

UAL, UAL US

United guides core up, but market penalizes for fuel Price (15 Jul 26):$120.97

conservatism ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$203.00 Prior (Dec-26):$156.00

United’s revised guidance, for both 3Q and FY26, squares nicely with our recently-

bolstered expectations, save for its real-time embrace of fuel prices. More Airlines & Aircraft Leasing (Equity)

importantly, based on Bloomberg consensus, we believe most of our competitors Jamie Baker AC

will be improving their non-fuel inputs. To us, this is what matters in the long run. (1-212) 622-6713

Unfortunately, the equity market chose to penalize United for its fuel conservatism, jamie.baker@jpmorgan.com

focusing instead on the aggregate “miss” relative to 3Q earnings consensus, while James M Kirby

not (yet) penalizing Delta for a fuel forecast that – at least for now – has been (1-212) 622-8297

james.m.kirby@jpmchase.com

rendered stale (though we obviously hope DAL is proven right, or better yet, too

Airlines & Aircraft Leasing (Credit)

high on fuel). Granted, we largely expected as much within moments of UAL’s

post-close disclosure yesterday, but given recent equity re-rating momentum at Mark Streeter, CFA AC

both Delta and United we were still clinging to the hope that the market might (1-212) 834-5086

mark.streeter@jpmorgan.com

respond more kindly. Perhaps in time. Meanwhile, and despite our curmudgeonly

Benjamin Stueck

disposition, we were unable to identify any material fault with either UAL’s 2Q

(1-212) 270-6757

print or its guide. We are also reducing our Delta 2H26 estimates, choosing to benjamin.stueck@jpmorgan.com