The path to €58 EPS in ‘30: Why 4F² DRAM Could Be ASM’s Next Major Growth Engine

Research evidence excerpt

The path to €58 EPS in ‘30: Why 4F² DRAM Could Be ASM’s Next Major Growth Engine

Investment Thesis: Why ASM Is Entering a

New Growth Phase

We reiterate our Buy rating on ASM and raise our PO to €1,435. We expect ASM to be a

major beneficiary of the adoption of 4F2 in the coming 2-3 years.

4F² – The Most Important DRAM Architecture Transition Since EUV

We believe the transition from conventional 6F² DRAM to 4F² architectures represents

the most important memory equipment inflection since the introduction of EUV in

DRAM. While DRAM scaling over the past decade has primarily been achieved through

lithography advances and increasingly complex patterning, the industry is now

approaching both physical and economic limits. As feature sizes move below 10nm-class

nodes, maintaining the traditional 6F² planar cell becomes increasingly challenging due

to capacitor scaling constraints, leakage, process variability and escalating

manufacturing costs. As a result, memory manufacturers are pursuing a fundamentally

different architecture based on 4F² cell layouts, vertical channel transistors (VCTs),

periphery-under-cell (PUC) integration and ultimately 3D DRAM structures. Industry

reports suggest Samsung is targeting initial 4F² production around 2028, with SK hynix

following a similar path, while Micron is expected to move towards a vertical DRAM

architecture thereafter.

Why 4F² Drives a Step-Change in ALD and Epitaxy Demand

From ASM's perspective, the critical point is that 4F² is not simply another DRAM node

shrink. The transition requires a much higher degree of materials engineering and three-

dimensional device construction. Vertical channel transistors introduce extremely high

aspect-ratio structures requiring highly conformal depositions. New channel materials,