Australia and New Zealand

Research evidence excerpt

Australia and New Zealand

Ben K Jarman (61-2) 9003-7982 Tom Ryan (61-2) 9003-7632 Economic Research J P M O R G A N

ben.k.jarman@jpmorgan.com thomas.f.ryan@jpmorgan.com Australia and New Zealand

J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited 17 July 2026

Tom Kennedy (61-2) 9003-7981

tom.kennedy@jpmorgan.com

meat/poultry/fish. Restaurants and ready-to-eat food are ment rate fell one tenth to 4.4%, unwinding part of April's

tracking acceleration, in line with stronger tourist arrivals and outsized jump and reinforcing the sense that prior data had

immigration flows. Household utilities inflation has been overstated the pace of cooling. Employment growth was

unusually strong lately on structural capacity issues, and robust at 40K and the temporary distortions that clouded

seems to have picked up further in the electricity segment April's print were largely unwound, leaving a signal of gradu-

(+4.9%q/q). Gas prices have however decelerated after a al softening rather than abrupt deterioration. For June, we

strong end to 2025 (+1.6%q/q). Rents appear about flat on expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.4%,

Stats NZ’s stock measure, while flows on new agreements employment to grow 15k, and the participation rate to remain

(which feed through to future CPI rents) have picked up on stable

inbound population dynamics.

Review of past week's data

On these readings, our projection for annual inflation at year- NAB business survey

end is 3.7%oya. This is still clearly above target, and we fore- Apr May Jun

cast headline to remain above the midpoint in the forecast Confidence (Index, sa) 23.5 -13.8 -5.0

window out to Dec-27. The RBNZ staff laid out various oil Conditions (Index, sa) 2.7 2.8 3.0

shock scenarios in the MPS, including higher oil prices with