Ecuador: Trade surplus resumes, remittances cushion deterioration risks

Research evidence excerpt

Ecuador: Trade surplus resumes, remittances cushion deterioration risks

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

16 July 2026

Ecuador

Trade surplus resumes, remittances cushion

deterioration risks

• The trade balance posted a US$645mn surplus in May, in line with our Economic and Policy Research

forecast Lucila Barbeito

• Export growth has been modest so far this year (+5.2% oya), supported by (54-11)lucila.barbeito@jpmorgan.com4348-7229

higher oil prices amid the global supply shock JPMorgan Chase Bank Sucursal Buenos Aires

• Imports growth accelerated (+17.7%oya) driving trade balance

deterioration YTD

• We revise our current account surplus forecast lower, to a still-strong

4.8% of GDP

Ecuador’s trade balance came in in line with expectations, posting a US$645mn

surplus in May and returning to a positive streak after last month’s shortfall. The

rebound was driven by a 6.7% m/m increase in exports—supported by both oil and

non-oil shipments—alongside a 9.5% m/m decline in imports, reversing April’s

increase.

Year to date, the trade surplus remains robust at US$2.1bn, though below the record

US$3.4bn registered over the same period last year (Figure 1). By sector, despite

the rise in oil prices year to date, the oil balance has deteriorated versus the same

period last year (-US$439mn), with the non-oil balance also weaker (down US

$880mn).

On a rolling 12-month basis, the surplus stands at US$4.9bn, down from a peak of

US$6.6bn last November, while the 3-month average annualized surplus is US

$3.1bn (Figure 2).

Export growth has been modest so far this year (+5.2% oya), supported by higher

oil prices amid a global oil supply shock. Oil exports rose 16.4% oya, despite a 4%

oya decline in volumes. Non-oil exports edged up (+1.9% oya): strong gains in