Energy Shock Monitor

Research evidence excerpt

Energy Shock Monitor

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

16 July 2026

Economic and Policy Research

Nora Szentivanyi

(44-20) 7134-7544

nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data: Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

• Global flights have made a near-full recovery to their 2025 levels, though maia.crook@jpmorgan.com

the gain since the start of the conflict continues to lag the typical seasonal JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

increase. Flights in China continue to rebound from an early-June lowpoint. Artem Fakhretdinov

Vehicle activity remains in line with its seasonal norms. (1-212) 272-1839

artem.fakhretdinov@jpmorgan.com

• Global tanker imports moved broadly sideways in the week through July JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

10th. The US and Asia ex China continue to hover around pre-conflict levels,

while China and (to a lesser extent) the Euro area remained depressed.

• Brent crude prices jumped 12%w/w amidst a re-escalation in US-Iran

tensions, and US retail gas prices have started to drift back up.

• Product prices continued to surge amid seasonally high demand, the Russian

diesel export ban, and a hindered recovery in flows through the Strait of

Hormuz. Wholesale diesel jumped over 20%w/w across the US, Europe and

Asia, while jet fuel was up 16%w/w and European natural gas up 10.5%w/w.

Daily flight numbers Petro-based product prices

%oya, 28d mov avg Index, Feb 26, 2026= 100 Natural gas

9 Asia (ex-China) Jet Europe (TTF)

195 fuel

6 Europe 175

3 US 155

0 135

-3 115

US gasoline -6 China 95 Brent crude Conflict pump price

-9 75

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Source: Rystad Energy, J.P. Morgan Commodities Research Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan

Activity tracking