Global Gas and Power Insights: JKM+TTF prices look stretched as market not as tight unless Strait disruption lasts long

Research evidence excerpt

Global Gas and Power Insights: JKM+TTF prices look stretched as market not as tight unless Strait disruption lasts long

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16 Jul 2026 12:33:44 ET │ 29 pages

Global Gas and Power Insights

JKM+TTF prices look stretched as market not as tight unless Strait

disruption lasts long

Maggie Xueting Lin AC

CITI'S TAKE +852-2501-2796

Middle East tensions re-escalating is disrupting transits through the Strait maggie.x.lin@citi.com

and has lifted Asian JKM and European TTF gas prices. However, Asian and AC Anthony YuenEuropean gas fundamentals don’t look as tight, assuming our base case

that the current escalation would be short-lived (Oil Monitor, Jul 13) and +852-2501-2731

should not go beyond what was seen in March and April this year. This report anthony.yuen@citi.com

examines key factors that help to ease a supposedly tight gas market: gas- AC Xiaodan Zhu

to-coal switching, strong renewables and nuclear generation, as well as a +1-212-816-5109cool start of summer in northeast Asia. Coal prices haven’t reacted much to

the escalated tensions and higher gas prices, despite gas-to-coal xiaodan.zhu@citi.com

switching, partly because of strong renewables generation and likely higher Maximilian J Layton

coal production quota by Indonesia government (sxcoal.com, 10-Jul-26). +44-20-7986-4556

max.layton@citi.com

A number of key moving parts in the global natural gas market – specifically in the

coal and renewables space – help to soften impacts of two headline grabbing Kenny Xunyuan Hu, CFA

developments: the disruption of the Strait and the European gas storage levels. +65-6657-3873

kenny.x.hu@citi.com

Tracking renewables generation and coal-to-gas switching, as key moving parts,

is more involved, nuanced but more meaningful than headlines mentioned above. Eric G Lee