US: NAHB index retreats further in July

Research evidence excerpt

US: NAHB index retreats further in July

J P M O R G A N Global Economic Research

16 July 2026

US: NAHB index retreats further in

July

• The NAHB Housing Market Index slipped a further 2-pt to 34 in July Economic and Policy Research

• The present sales index is down 5-pt ytd; expected future sales down 9-pt Bennett Parrish

(1-212) 622-9003

• Higher mortgage rates are weighing on builder confidence bennett.parrish@jpmchase.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

The NAHB housing market index fell a further 2 points to 34 in July, a second

consecutive monthly decline that leaves the index level with its lowest reading of

the year. Sentiment is now down 5 points since the start of the year and remains well

below historical norms. The index has held below 40 for 15 straight months,

marking the longest such stretch since the aftermath of the GFC. A reading below

50 signals that the majority of builders view market conditions as unfavorable. The

spring selling season was broadly disappointing for new home sales, as even the

widespread use of sales incentives struggled to motivate buyers against a backdrop

of rising mortgage rates.

All three major survey components declined in July, and all remain well below the

50 threshold. The measure of current sales conditions edged down 1 point to 37,

while the gauges of expected sales over the next six months (-2 points to 43) and

prospective buyer traffic (-2 points to 23) each fell further. Demand conditions

remain weak and may even be understated, given that survey responses were

collected during the first two weeks of the month, before the resumption of military

action in the Middle East interrupted two months of falling energy prices. The

picture was mixed at the regional level in July. While the Northeast and Midwest