Transocean: 2Q26 Preview and Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

Transocean: 2Q26 Preview and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

16 July 2026

Transocean Underweight

RIG, RIG US

2Q26 Preview and Model Update Price (15 Jul 26):$5.20

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

JPM View: RIG would be a prime beneficiary of a tightening market backdrop for Arun Jayaram AC

high-spec floaters, though we remain cautious on the story on valuation grounds (1-212) 622-8541

and the regulatory uncertainty associated with the pending Valaris transaction. arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

Management's tone ahead of the print remains constructive. The demand outlook Kartikey H Pandey

appears intact even as the shares have retreated, with fundamentals characterized (1-212) 622-5006

as the tightest in over a decade and marketed drillship utilization expected to kartikey.pandey@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

exceed 90% by YE26 and further improve next year. Contract coverage stood at

86% for 2026 and 73% for 2027 as of early May, providing some forward visibility.

Customers are increasingly locking in capacity for longer-term, with Equinor and Key Changes (FYE Dec)

Harbour Energy both recently contracting rigs in Norway. Notably, much of the Prev Cur Δ

requested work is skewed toward one- to two-year firm terms with sizable option Adj. EPS - 26E ($) 0.08 0.06 -22.6%

packages, and the business remains sized for a $60-80/bbl oil environment. Adj. EPS - 27E ($) 0.29 0.24 -14.6%

Management noted that pricing for term work is roughly flat for now, but they Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

expect the tightening in utilization to provide pricing tailwinds next year. Adj. EPS ($)

2025A 2026E 2027E

Management flagged the potential for softer near-term contracting activity, with Q1 (0.07) (0.02)A 0.04