Italy: Electoral bill heads to Senate

Research evidence excerpt

Italy: Electoral bill heads to Senate

J P M O R G A N Europe Economic Research

16 July 2026

We discussed potential changes to the Italian electoral law two weeks ago (here). Economic and Policy Research

The bill was debated in the Chamber of Deputies this week. The amendments Mariana Monteiro

approved were broadly in line with our expectations and prior media reporting. (44 20) 3493-5147

Ahead of the final vote today, press coverage earlier in the week emphasized the mariana.reispaivamonteiro@jpmorgan.com

rejection of one element proposed by Brothers of Italy related to “preference J.P. Morgan Securities plc

votes.” But in our view, this setback is unlikely to have materially affected the

government’s standing. Nor does it appear to have very significant implications for

election timing: we continue to expect an Autumn 2027 vote, with risks skewed

towards a slightly earlier election in Spring.

The bill will now move to the Senate, which may either approve it as currently

drafted or propose further changes, including reintroducing the amendment put

forward by Meloni in the lower chamber. In that scenario, the text would need to

be returned to the lower chamber for another vote. We continue to expect the

incumbent coalition to reach an agreement and implement electoral changes,

reflecting the polling configurations we discussed previously—though some

uncertainty around the final design remains, especially as the law could still be

subject to constitutional review.

Approved changes are in line with our expectations

The government plans to replace the current mixed electoral model (single-

member districts plus proportional representation with closed lists) with a fully

proportional system featuring a majority bonus. Key approved changes in the

Chamber of Deputies include: