Brazil: More thoughts on the U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil: More thoughts on the U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

16 July 2026

Brazil

More thoughts on the U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports

EM, Economic and Policy Research

Vinicius Moreira

(55-11) 4950-3195

vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

Cassiana Fernandez

Following the USTR’s recommendation in early June, last night marked a new (55-11) 4950-3369

cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

chapter in the history of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports. On the back of

Mirella Sampaioinvestigations under Section 301, the U.S. adopted a 25% import levy on Brazil

(55-11) 4950-3289

imports, backed by arguments concentrating on unfair trade practices. mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com

Gustavo Ribeiro

The tariff will take effect next Wednesday. The list of exceptions, which includes (55-11) 4950-4059

oil, coffee, aircraft and parts, beef, and orange juice, covers almost 50% of what gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

Brazil exported to the U.S. before the tariff discussion began in 2025. Considering Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.

that the 25% tariff is not stacked on top of the 10% global tariff under Section 122,

about a quarter of Brazil’s exports are covered by a different tariff regime under

Section 232 (typically 50%, 25%, or 10%), and about a quarter fall under the 25%

Section 301 tariff. We had initially thought this would raise the average tariff to

19%, but considering the extended list of exceptions released by the USTR and the

tiering of Section 232 tariffs detailed in April and June, we now estimate the current

average tariff at 16%, using 2024 weights (Figure 1).

Brazil is also included in a separate Section 301 investigation, which argues for

additional tariffs tied to allegations of forced labor across 60 economies. A further